Sun, 29 May 2005
Don't low-paid workers deserve a decent place in our society?
People don't get paid what they deserve. Nobody does. People get
paid an amount of money equal to or less than the value they create for other
people. If that value is less than the minimum wage, then that person
is not legally employable. I know that you want to raise the minimum
wage, but how many livelihoods do you want to destroy at the same time?
As a mental exercise, let's raise the minimum wage to $100/hour. What
about all the people who cannot supply that much value? They will
either 1) starve, 2) go on public assistance, or 3) work illegally.
Starving is obviously a problem. Working illegally is also a problem
because a worker has no recourse under the law for anything. Let's
wipe out all the gains produced by workman's compensation, workplace
discrimination, health and safety laws. So they'll go on public
assistance, but who is paying the taxes? Those very few people who
are allowed under the law to be productive.
Now, let's go the other way and get rid of those pernicious effects.
In order to get rid of all of them, we have to reduce the minimum wage
below the value producible by any person. That is probably zero.
The effect of the minimum wage law is to destroy some people's jobs,
and take their pay and distribute it to the remaining workers. Don't
kid yourself into thinking that workers deserve a minimum wage.
Nobody deserves to have their job destroyed.
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Wed, 11 May 2005
Predatory Pricing
There is this widely-held theory that big companies can use their
size to out-compete small companies by engaging in predatory pricing.
They use size and profitability in other (usually monopolized) markets
to outlast a smaller, specialized competitor in a niche market by
writing off the losses in this small market which the competitor
cannot afford to.
Back in reality, it turns out that companies that try to maintain a
monopoly in this manner (predatory pricing) have a hard time making
money using this tactic. It costs them more to maintain their
monopoly than they can ever recoup through higher prices. Let's say
that they lower their prices by ten cents for a year, and drive
somebody out of the business. In order to make back that money, they
need to raise their prices by ten cents over their original monopoly
price. But the party that they put out of business went into business
precisely because they saw a way to suck off excess profits by
competing with the monopoly. Now the market price is ten cents
higher, and the profits are even more attractive to a new entrant. So
somebody else goes into the business, and the monopoly can't even go
back to their old price. They have to go back to the old "lose ten
cents per" price, because that's what's necessary to drive the
competition out of business.
Predatory pricing doesn't work according to the standard
theory.
Update 5/17: Adam writes to point out another problem with the
theory. When the price gets lowered by the "predator", that increases
demand, so the company has to sell more. When they raise prices again,
that reduces the demand and makes it harder to recoup their loss.
Update 8/7: Cathal writes to say that predatory pricing can work
under certain market conditions
if you also know something your competitor does not (asymmetric information).
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Tue, 10 May 2005
Black Rednecks
Only a black PhD economist
could get away with saying that there is such a thing as a Black Redneck.
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Economic Activity
This morning I heard on NCPR (the
local NPR affiliate) a story about military
base closings. The story ended with the note "[These bases]
generate more than $2 billion of economic activity."
This short note is economically wrong in three ways. First,
taxation does not generate anything. In fact taxation replaces
private spending with public spending. Thus, a more accurate note
would be "[These bases] spend more than $2B in New York State."
Second, taxation only transfers money from being spent on one thing
to being spent on another[1].
Thus, when the public taxes money away from private entities, it also
destroys the thing that the public would have spent the money on.
Taxation also costs money: directly in the expenses of the operation
of coercing taxes, and indirectly in the actions taken by citizens to
reduce their taxes. Thus, an even more accurate note would be "[These
bases] spend more than $2B in New York State, and destroy even more
spending all over America."
Third, the whole point of trade in a free-market economy is to
create value, not just activity. Economic activity includes digging a
hole, and filling it in again. Unless some value was created by that
activity, it was a complete and utter waste of money. Economic
ignoramuses may say "ahhhh, but the workers got paid!" I say "ahhhh,
but they would have been paid to do something else, productively."
For one particular set of workers, that's not necessarily true. If
you make the economy inefficient enough because you concentrate on
activity and not value, it becomes so highly probable that it becomes
truth.
So, the most accurate note would be "If the military doesn't need
the bases, they wasted more than $2B spent in New York State, and
destroyed a greater amount of spending all over America."
[1] Even if the money is just put in the bank, the bank will loan
the money to someone, who will then spend it. Even if the money is
put in a mattress, the economy will notice that that money isn't
circulating anymore and will adjust the value of the remaining money
higher.
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Extensive vs. Intensive Growth
You will very often hear leftists (by which I mean non-economists;
leftists who understand economics become libertarians) complain about
growth. Growth is bad for the environment, they say. This is not
necessarily true. There are two different types of growth. Extensive
growth is simply more of the same. A lumber company that cuts down
twice as many trees would be growing extensively.
Intensive growth is different. With intensive growth, you have
companies doing more with less. Lumber companies used to just cut
down trees, then slice the trees up into lumber. They have grown
intensively by using more of the same tree. The limbs get chipped and
turned into chipboard. The parts of the tree which are too twisted to
become lumber get turned into flakeboard. The sawdust is reused
rather than treated as a waste product. The sawblades are thinner so
less wood is turned into sawdust. The saw is computer-controlled so
the sawyer uses his judgement to grade the cuts, then the sawmill
automatically cuts the boards. More products are being made from
the same amount of trees.
So when you hear somebody complain "Oh, growth is bad for Mother
Earth", ask them "What kind of growth?"
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Add a little bit of cynicism to everything
I think that we should add a little bit of cynicism to everything
we write. Whenever we mention an incontrovertible fact, like 2 times
5 is ten, add to it "or thirteen if Congress passes a special law."
The point, expressed humorously and repetitively, is that some laws
are discovered rather than legislated. These laws can be found in the
area of economics as well, e.g. if you pay your employees more than
you can afford, you'll go out of business, unless Congress passes a
special law.
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Price Gouging
Donald J. Boudreaux is the editor of The Freeman, and also
blogs at Cafe Hayek. His
article in the current issue, unfortunately only available in PDF form,
not HTML, deals with Price Gouging. It's very well written, but he
misses a point about the justice of higher profits for producers and
distributors of in-demand goods. He says that those profits could be
donated to a relief effort. I say not.
When a shop-keeper in an area in emergency conditions raises his
prices, he profits more. This seems to be a side effect of the more
important aspect of higher prices signalling higher demand. It isn't.
Emergency conditions are predictable. Where I live, the typical
emergency is an ice storm. The kinds of goods that are needed to
survive an ice storm are predictable: generators, fuel, food, and
bottled water. Those shop-keepers who stock extra of these items
during times of higher risk of ice storms will profit more. That's
not unfair, that's just the reward for good speculation.
We should set the rules of a market society so that rationality is
rewarded, and the seven deadly sins are punished. When a shop-keeper
plans ahead wisely, if an emergency hits, he will make higher profits.
This serves as an incentive to be wise. It is exactly this attribute
which makes free market societies function so well. The prudent are
rewarded. That is how it should be.
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The Rich Should Get Richer
You will often hear the left say "The rich get richer and the poor
get poorer". They believe this both as a fact and as an ethical
judgement. They think that the poor really do get poorer in a market
economy. This goes back to the usual "fixed pie" theory of economics.
"If you get something, you must have gotten it to my disadvantage."
It takes very little examination to see that the "poor" in more-free
market societies are much better-off than the poor in societies with
less-free markets. Unfortunately leftists are never willing to open
their eyes.
The left also mean the first part ("The rich get richer") as an
ethical judgement. Even if the poor got richer as well, the left
would still believe it wrong that the rich get richer. While you can
make any ethical judgement you want, you should be aware of the
effects of your judgement. Ethical judgements (for the worse) are
intended to reduce the amount of the thing judged. That is, the left
believe the world would be better if the rich didn't get richer.
But the rich should get richer in a free market society.
There is no way to get rich in a free market society except by
convincing people that you have something they want. Thus, people who
have learned to be helpful should be encouraged to continue to be
helpful. There's plenty of evidence that, having created valuable
goods once, they will do so again in the future. Thus, the rich ought to
get richer.
Note for the unwary: the USA is not a terribly free market society
in an absolute sense. It is merely much more free than most. Thus,
if you want to look for examples of non-freeness in which private
parties gain from political manipulation, you will find many of them
in the USA. Some people are rich not because they were helpful, but
because they were skillful at manipulating politics. That doesn't
invalidate the idea of free markets. Rather, it endorses the idea of
reducing the centralization of power. Power can be used for good or
evil, but it's usually used for evil. Better not to concentrate
it.
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Selling on the Internet
I've been having a conversation with Robert Pirillo, who runs Roberts Honing &
Gundrilling. He has, alas, fallen prey to a purveyor of junkware
which searches for webpages containing the search terms, locates any
email addresses on the page (or in the whois for the domain, or
whatever), and sends advertising email. He doesn't view this as
spamming, unfortunately. I fully suspect that most providers will,
though, because it's unsolicited, it's bulk, and it's email.
So he thinks that this would get attention to his business, saying
"Isn't that what's great about the Internet?" Well, yeah, but it's
also what's horrible about it. There's at least 60,000 small
businesses in the US, and what if ten of them sent you one email a
day? 6,000 days later, you'd have gotten a steady stream of ten spams
a day. But that's only 16 years.
No, the way to sell your business over the Internet is to give away
information to your potential customers that shows that you know your
business. Don't just list your services. Instead, explain how
hydraulic cylinders work (or don't work), tell people how to evaluate
the health of their hydraulic cylinders, and say how to fix them.
Don't pay for someone to write a fancy website. Instead, give your
readers a tutorial which contains pure information neutrally
presented, and at the bottom says "Copyright 2005, Roberts Honing
& Gundrilling". It doesn't matter if it has a few speling erorrs,
or if the graphics look hokey. The important part is to make it clear
that you know your shit better than anybody else. Your competition
isn't going to steal your website (because you can sue them for actual
damages, or triple damages if it's a registered copyright), and your
customers will know exactly where to get reliable expert service.
Sign onto a mailing list of people who are likely to have the
problems your company solves. When they have questions, answer them.
They'll see that you're an expert, and when they want a job done
right, they'll know to come to you.
That is what's great about the Internet. Not the
ability to force yourself on unwilling listeners, but to participate
in a conversation with potential customers.
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Readability of the Angry Economist
Wow! I've been aiming at having very readable
articles. I've succeeded! The Gunning Fog Index is 7.63, which
makes it easier than Reader's Digest. The Flesch Reading Ease is
71.70 (out of 100, where 100 is easiest). The Flesch-Kincaid Grade is
4.69. As in "fifth grade".
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Creating New Jobs
Let's say that you want to create a new job. Where are you going
to get the employee to fill it? There are basically four ways: grow
a new one (but that takes 20 years), import one from another country,
buy an employee who already has a job, or export the job to another
country.
I'm sure that by this time (only three sentences) any labor
unionist is seething under the collar. Union organizers maintain that
there are never
enough jobs to go around (yes, people have actually said that; 8
times, if you believe
Google). This is utter and complete nonsense, which you can
immediately understand by asking this question: "If you could hire as
many people you wanted for a penny a day, how many would you hire?"
Clearly, then, the problem is not a lack of jobs. The capitalist
system ensures that there are always enough jobs to go
around, even if the government acts to make the market-clearing wage illegal.
The only reason unemployment exists in a free market is because
information takes time to propagate, and because of human nature.
People are reasonably cautious at accepting the first offer for
anything. We like to compare offers before we decide.
So, when you create a new job, you have to buy an employee who
already has a job, or persuade an employee who has no job that yours
is the best job for them. But what if somebody else has out-competed
you, and bought that employee away from you? The job doesn't cease to
exist. Somebody needs to do it. You have to go back to the
list in the first paragraph to try to find an employee to fill the
job. No one of these methods harms employees in this country! If you
could find an employee at the wage you're willing to pay, you would
have.
It's inevitable that a growing economy needs more workers. Nobody
is harmed when employers pierce country boundaries to find workers.
From the point of view of the workers, the more growth, the more
employers seeking employees, the better the wages.
UPDATE: I thought of another reason why unemployment exists in a
free market: rising expectations. Most people get better at doing stuff
as they get older. Most people expect higher pay for more value.
When they switch jobs (whether by quitting or being fired), they'll
be looking for more pay rather than less.
Also, free markets are always creating new value, so the same job
can, over time, earn more and more money. This leads an employee to
want more pay rather than settling for the first job they find and lower pay.
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How to Destroy Capitalism
Attention leftists, socialists, communists, communitarians, and
anarchists of all anti-property stripes! Do you want to destroy
capitalism (and throw yourself and everyone else back into the poverty
that is usual for mankind)? It's simple: extend the notion of
liability for harm in a very small way. If I burn down your store, I
am liable for the harm, of course. If I out-compete you and destroy
your store that way, I am not liable. If you want to destroy
capitalism, simply extend liability to the harm caused by competition.
In short order, everyone who is better at anything will have to pay
compensation to anybody who is worse at it. Soon, nobody will bother
to become better at anything, 90% of the people in the world will die
off, we'll be back to only 600 million people, we won't be putting
pressure on the bugs and bunnies anymore, there will be plenty of
resources for everyone, and Malthus will come back to life to direct
us all in this Nirvana.
Does HTML have a <sarcasm> tag?
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Left "libertarianism"
I saw someone write this on a mailing list:
As a self-described left-libertarian (which means that I
see human liberty and human cooperation as compatible, which the
right-libertarians do not),"
There is no such thing as a left-libertarian OR a
right-libertarian. Whoever wrote this is confused about
libertarianism. Of course so-called right-libertarians
believe that human liberty and voluntary human cooperation are
compatible. If you believe in voluntary cooperation, then you are a
libertarian, whether left, right, middle, top, or bottom. If you
believe in any use of violence other than to prevent greater
violence, then you aren't a libertarian. So-called left-libertarians
believe in coercing desired behavior from peaceful people.
I think there's a larger issue here. "Liberal" used to mean the
philosophy which is called in the US "libertarian", and which is still
called "liberal" in some other countries. Since this philosophy
generally promotes happiness and distributes power, people who seek
power object to it. Since the philosophy is hard to understand and is
counter-intuitive, it only takes a little bit of effort to undermine
it. For example, you can introduce only beneficial coercion, bringing
the philosophy leftwards. Thus, the "Liberal" is now applied in the
US to the leftist trade-union high-taxes consumer-protection
philosophy. By using the term left-libertarian, these people seek to
convince people that libertarians believe in coercion.
Left-libertarians are just ordinary leftists and socialists looking
for cover. You can see this in the Wikipedia article on libertarian
socialism. Fortunately, real libertarians are loudly objecting to
their usurption of the term.
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Twenty Five Years Of Stagnation
The standard "wisdom" is that Americans have not gotten wealthier
in the past twenty-five years. Lots of people believe this, even
extremely intelligent people like Richard Stallman. And yet, I must
believe the converse when I look at the parking situation at the local
colleges. Clarkson University built a new parking lot in front of
Cubley-Reynolds(1) and
expanded the Hamlin-Powers(6) parking
lot. SUNY Potsdam built a whole new lot out behind Bowman South(not even
on the map yet).
The demographics are such that student population is down from when
I attended Clarkson. At the time, we had involuntary triples, and
single occupancy dorm rooms were only available to seniors in the New
Dorms (which, by the way, they still call the New Dorms).
Potsdam State still requires freshmen and sophomores to live on campus
in order to keep the dorms at full occupancy. They didn't when I was
in college. So, there are no more students, and substantially more
cars. The kind of students who attend Clarkson and SUNY Potsdam have
not changed as far as I can tell.
The only explanation is that Americans have indeed gotten
wealthier, and that is reflected in more students who can afford cars.
Cars have not exactly gotten cheaper either. They have more safety
equipment, and more luxury equipment. When I was a child, only a
Cadillac had window washers and electric windows. Now all cars have
them, or very nearly.
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Union [Corporate] Responsibility
Some people want corporations to be socially responsible. That
is, they want corporations to have to be responsible not just to the
owners of the business, but to "stakeholders".
A stakeholder is anybody too cheap to buy a portion of the business,
but who wants to be able to benefit from, and participate in, the
operation of the business.
A union is organized as a corporation, no?
Thus, I claim that I am a stakeholder of the Communications Workers of America
(just to pick on one of them), and the next time they vote on a union
contract, I get to vote on it too.
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Church and Schooling
You can compel schooling, but you cannot compel learning. You can
compel attendance at church, but you cannot compel belief. We are
risking our eternal souls by separating religion and state.
Nonetheless, America is one of the most religious countries in the
world. By analogy, separating school and state would result in
America being one of the most educated countries in the world. school
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Minimum wage case study
Warren Meyer blogs on the effects of the minimum wage on his
campground business at Coyote
Blog. I have my own opinion about minimum wages.
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Saving this country at a profit
Howard L. Hunt said
"If this country is worth saving, it's worth saving at a profit." It
seems like a somewhat cynical thing to say. It seems to put profit
before people; a usual complaint of the humane leftists. The more
hopeful thing to say might be "If this country is worth saving, people
will donate their time to save it."
Profit is important. Profit is the measure that you are succeeding
at doing something. You can created something that people want to
buy. Profit simply means that your revenues exceed your expenses.
You are producing more than you are costing. There is nothing
intrinsically worthwhile about a non-profit (non-taxable) or
not-for-profit (taxable) entity. Any entity can eliminate its profits
simply by donating all of its profits to charity. This would not be
sufficient to make the enterprise worthwhile in many
people's eyes.
Profit has two pleasant characteristics. First is that profit
attracts capital investment. If a company is making money, then more
people are going to enter into the business. If the business of the
company is saving the world, then the world will be saved all the
faster. Second, profit tells you that you are actually helping
people. Take, for example, the case of Christian missionaries who
teach people how to read....the Bible. While the ability to read is
surely a good thing, it's not clear that the people who now know how
to read the Bible are better off. A primary tenet of profits in a
free market is that everyone who trades is better off. Somebody who
runs around a third world country teaching people how to use
contraception because their country is overpopulated
is not clearly doing them a favor.
Charity surely has its place, but profits are better than charity, always.
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Barry Schwartz, Master Chooser
Our own Russell Roberts
was just on NPR's Morning Edition, posed against Barry
Schwartz, on the topic, more or less, of whether people should be
allowed to choose how their retirement is invested, or whether the
federal government should choose it by spending social security taxes
in their name.
Barry, predictably, came out against choice. I say "predictably"
because of his book The
Paradox of Choice, which he has been trotting out whenever
possible. The point that (unfortunately) Russell didn't push very
hard, and which Barry cannot defend against, is that the choices that
Barry dislikes all exist as possibilities. If the spectrum of choices
is to be narrowed for the sake of people's mental health, who is to
choose which possibilities will go and which will remain?
If we are to have fewer choices, those possibilities will have to
not exist. Somebody will have to choose which possibilities don't
exist. Who will that be? Barry Schwartz, Master Chooser? What makes
him so smart? What makes him so mentally stable, so able to resist
the pressure of all those choices, that he will be able to choose when
I cannot? I agree with Barry that choices are hard to make, but I
learned this very early on in life: if you find a choice hard, then
you don't know enough to distinguish between the choices. You should
either learn more about the choices, or else decide that the cost of
learning exceeds the value of the choice, pick one of the choices that
all appear the same, and move on. Regrets? They're foolish, silly,
and immature. Move on. Mistakes? Inevitable; you're a human; that's
what we do. Move on.
In essence, Barry is arguing for the infantilization of American
society. We protect our children from many choices because they lack
the knowledge necessary to choose. That's foolish. Teach your
children to choose! That's why you exist, as a parent, and your goal should be to
stop being a parent as soon as reasonable. We don't want a society of
children, we want a society of clear-thinking, responsible adults.
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Who pays for government?
A note for the unwary: the following post is sarcasm. No, really, it is.
Economists Don
Boudreaux and Russell Roberts just don't get it, do they? They
think that when the government pays for something, people
"overconsume". What they don't understand is that it's not people
like you or I who pay most taxes. It's the rich people. Providing
all these services by government expenditures is just a way to "even
up the score". To create some justice. To make sure that the rich
people "give back".
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Markets are not games
Doc Searls has a deep understanding of economics:
Chill, folks. Markets are public places where makers and vendors offer
users and customers lots of choice. Not coliseums where gladiators
kick and stab each other to death while the rest of us cheer over
bruises and blood.
Markets are not games, and game theory has limited applicability to
economics.
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Maxwell's Political Demon
Cross-posted between my old Angry-Economist blog and
my new Russ Nelson blog.
James
Maxwell did a lot of work on thermodynamics. One of the things he
proposed was a violation of the second law of thermodynamics by a kind
of entity with the finite ability to separate energetic molecules from
less energetic ones. This entity is called Maxwell's Demon. There
are lots of reasons why it fails in the real world; for example
sensation requires sampling, and sampling requires destruction of a
portion of what is sampled.
You could also posit a kind of Political Demon, which would serve to
ensure that good laws are passed and bad laws are not passed. The
trouble with this idea is that we already have one such: the
president. His function, with his veto power, is to require that
Congress only send him good laws, as he will veto the bad laws. You
can see how well that has worked in reality. Just like there is a
second law of thermodynamics, which dictates the behavior of physical
entities, so there is a nature of political action, which dictates the
behavior of political entities.
You can see various people attempt to create a Political Demon.
You see inveterate attempts to reform government
schools. The idea is that without changing the fundamentally
coercive nature of government schools, you can have a Political Demon
which sorts amongst the characteristics of government schools,
eliminating the bad ones and keeping the good ones. Similarly you see
attempts at campaign finance reform, or health care reform. I'm
starting to see a common characteristic here. Whenever a futile
attempt at change is made, it's called "reform", as if the thing under
consideration was formed perfectly at one time, has been ruined by the
political system, and will now be reformed back into its perfect
nature.
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Steroids
[nelson@desk nelson]$ grep -i steroids Constitution
[nelson@desk nelson]$
Can somebody please explain to me what Congress is doing by examining steroid use among baseball players?
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The Law of Returns
Whenever you create something, it requires a mix of inputs.
Perhaps you're just whittling a stick into a shape. You'll need a
stick and a knife, but you'll also need a person's time. Some combination of
sticks, knives, and time will generate the most shaped sticks. That's obvious
for something simple. Try creating a pencil.
There are hundreds of steps involved requiring at least seven inputs:
brass and rubber for the eraser, wood, graphite, glue, and paint for
the pencil, plus varying amounts of labor.
These inputs do not come in infinitely varying quantities. Labor
only comes in one-person chunks. You can hire people part-time of
course, but they need to be trained. Wood comes in some definite
length, width, and height related to the size tree it came from. Glue
and paint come in pots. Graphite is malleable and is shaped to fit
the size pencil being made. It would seem to be an exception, but no
doubt you have to buy graphite in certain discrete amounts, e.g. a ton
at a time.
Everyone is familiar with
the fact that hot dogs come ten to a package, but hot dog buns come
just eight to a package. These are the inputs to a hot dog. You can
make yourself one hot dog, but you'll end up with nine dogs and seven
buns. Another one gets you eight dogs and six buns. Keep going and
you'll have two dogs left over. Optimal mix is forty hot dogs: four
packages of dogs, and five packages of buns.
This implies that the larger the enterprise, the easier time it
will have balancing its inputs. The larger the enterprise, however,
the larger its communication and coordination costs. Bigness has its
advantages pushing companies larger and its disadvantages pushing them
smaller.
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Minimum Wage Sellers
Right now, if you attempt to purchase labor for a price lower than
the
minimum wage, that is illegal. Interestingly, though, if you
attempt to sell labor
for a price lower than the minimum wage, that is not illegal.
Contrast this with drugs, where both buyer and seller are at risk.
There is another comment on that blog page that points out that the
minimum wage is racist. The jobs that the minimum wage eliminates are
disproportionately minority jobs. Why? Well, given the fact of
racist employers, the minimum wage makes it possible for them to hire
their preferred white employees with no penalty. Absent the minimum
wage, another employer could pay blacks a lower wage. This would let
them out-compete the racist employers. While one can regret the fact
that racism incents even non-racists to pay blacks less, the mechanism
which naturally causes harm to racists is broken by the minimum wage
law.
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Marxism is not yet dead
I always thought that the quip "Marxism is dead everywhere but on
the American college campus" was a cheap shot, but apparently not.
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Historical Mathematics
Imagine if mathematicians were taught to understand mathematics in
terms of the history of math. In order to discern that 1+2 is 3 and
that 2+1 is equally 3, you would have to look at the history of it.
Has this relation been true in the past? If so, the historical
mathematician thusly concludes that it is a relation that will
continue in the future.
Sounds like nonsense, doesn't it? It is. Now imagine a branch of
economics that does the same thing, called historical economics. It
would be nonsense, and since it actually exists, it is
nonsense.
Tradestation is a service
which allows individuals to trade stocks on the market by entering
orders under the control of a program. The program has access to all
the prices of the stock sampled at five minute intervals going back
years, and daily intervals before that. Using an appropriate program,
you may create a theory about the market. You can test your theory
against the historical prices by running your program in test mode, to
see how it would have traded.
This, too, is nonsense. Prices on the market are determined by a
large number of factors. These factors will not be the same in the
future as they were in the past. People's opinions change, their
trading method changes, companies change, industries change, and
economies change. When you're writing a Tradestation program for the
past, that is all that it will reliably succeed at.
This does not mean that Tradestation is useless, or harmful. It
can be used to test theories about the market, but those theories must
be tested using new data, not past data. Otherwise you're just
fitting your theory to the shape of the curve-that-used-to-be.
So how do you trade using Tradestation successfully? You trade on
the fundamentals of a stock. You build on what previous traders
learned; for example Ben Graham, or Warren Buffett. You look for
special situations: a stock that is undervalued by the market.
This is also what the successful economist does: creates a theory
about some economic principle based on what other economists have
learned; for example Ludwig von Mises, Freidrick Hayek, Ronald Coase,
etc. Then she looks to see what people actually do. If she is right,
then the theory is a good one. If she is wrong, she goes back to
square one with a new theory.
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I'm now blogging under multiple categories
While I intend to continue blogging on the subject of economics, I
find that single focus too limiting. As I'm now the President of the
Open Source Initiative, I want to blog on opensource as well. And on
railroads. And on bicycling. And on mapping. And on rowing. So
I've established a general interest blog at blog.russnelson.com.
Everything in the economics topic of that blog will also appear on
angry-economist.russnelson.com.
In case you're wondering how I'm doing this, it's very simple. I
moved the angry-economist pyblosxom directory into the blog/economics
directory, edited the config.py file, and told apache about the new
document root.
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Blacks are lazy?
I expect that everyone has heard the "Blacks are lazy" slander. I
think a single economic principle has two aspects that may explain its
genesis: if everything else is the same, people will prefer leisure to
work. In other words, everyone is lazy. So why do blacks get picked
on? Two reasons: First, racism rewards blacks less for work, giving
them less incentive to work hard. Second, that the difference between
the work output of a slave versus the same person as a freedman could
be perceived as laziness. Even the smallest effect would be picked up
by a racist looking for reasons to hate blacks.
It is a fact that blacks are paid less for the same work as whites.
Black unemployment is also higher than white unemployment. Racists no
doubt think there is one and only one explanation: that blacks work
less hard, create less value, and their continued employment can only
be justified by less pay. It's much more likely that racism is the
cause of "blacks are lazy".
Anecdotal evidence is always suspect, but it can be useful for what
it does not show. I, myself, know of no blacks who could remotely be
called lazy. A 60-hour work week, a house on the North Shore, and
daughters in Princeton and Williams is not evidence of laziness.
I cannot recall where I read this, but freed slaves worked less
hard upon receiving their freedom. This is predictable since a slave
owner puts the highest value on the work output of a slave, whereas
the slave values leisure highest (if all else is the same). Of
course, all else was not the same. The slave-holder was free to use
violence and imprisonment against the slave, whereas the slave only
had underwork and escape.
Note that I'm not saying that blacks actually are lazy.
I'm saying that people pre-disposed to find differences between
themselves and others based on race (that is, racists) are comforted
by the perception that blacks are lazy. It would take very little
evidence to convince them of anything bad about blacks, and very large
evidence to convince them of anything good. For example, a racist
will generalize from a single black person resting on his shovel to
thinking that all blacks are lazy. And once a racist starts believing
bad of blacks, those blacks get paid less, those blacks want to work
less, and you have a vicious cycle. Even if the effect is small in
time, space, or magnitude, a racist will pick it up and continue to
believe that blacks are lazy.
Rather than end on that depressing note, I'll end on an even more
depressing note: I don't think there's anything to be done about it
other than to wait for racists to die out.
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All concentrations of power are bad
Power
corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely -- Lord Acton.
Trying to overwhelm the concentrated power of a corporation by
concentrating power in government is wrong. When a large company
misuses its power, your action should be to make it smaller by buying
from its competition. Even monopolies (e.g. Microsoft) have
competition (e.g. Macintosh and Linux). I happen to believe that no
government function is necessary, but I recognize that that is not a
mainstream view. Most people support the idea of governments. How do
you get away from having a monopoly government, though? How can you
have competitive governments?
I believe that the United States was set up to be a collection of
competitive governments: the states. If you read the Constitution
with that in mind, you see that the federal government was strictly
limited in what it could do. Everything else was left to the states
to decide. Some things are obviously better if the states cooperate,
and cooperate they do. There is no Federal Department of Driving,
which ensures that driver's licenses have identical requirements, or
that laws relating to driving are identical. The competition between
states causes the states to end up having nearly identical laws. A
state that differed wildly from its neighbors would have fewer people
able to enter into it.
Why don't we have that situation anymore? I think that some time
shortly after the Civil War, people became convinced of the advantages
of bigness; of centralization. This was the period of the first
really large companies: railroads. The centralization of a business,
however, is not the same as the centralization of a government. A
business has to earn money. That is its ultimate test for efficiency.
If it cannot do that, it cannot survive. A government, however, does
not need to make money. It can be wasteful with taxpayer dollars
without suffering. Even if it does suffer, the suffering is used as a
justification for spending more taxpayer dollars. "Oh, we're
educating our children badly; we need smaller classes and more
teachers."
So, companies that have grown too large get cut back in size. AT&T
sold off NCR; it was a mistake to ever get that large. How can we cut
back the federal government in size? That's what George Bush is
trying to do. Whether his method will be successful or not can only
be answered by the historians.
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Open Source and IT
Everybody who seeks to make a profit has a mixture of inputs to
their operation. You need a mix of skills, tools, and materials. The
exact mix chosen depends on the price and value of those things. A
radical change in the price of any one component will make the current
mix double-plus ungood (thank you, Don Lancaster). The proportions of
the mix will change, with more of the cheaper input being used.
In other words, free software means that the efficiency of the IT
industry has greatly increased. IT products have become cheaper.
This will result in MORE total IT spending. More programmers will be
needed in the future, not less. RMS got the economics completely wrong
in his manifesto.
We recently had a discussion about economics that ended up in me
purchasing him a copy of Economics in One
Lesson.
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The Lego Group, and a change in the nature of companies
I think that with widespread Internet access, we're seeing a
chanage in the nature of companies. It used to go like this: someone
would: have an idea for something people would want to buy, find some
capitalists, hire some people with their money, make the product, sell
the product hopefully at a profit, pay back the capitalists, and start
over again. You have producers selling to consumers.
Notice the long feedback loop there? That's the risk, you see.
Companies profits are partially earned for taking risk. Consumers
don't necessarily want to purchase the goods that were made. If they
don't, and the company cannot cover the cost of that risk, then it
goes out of business. The company's goods get liquidated and the
capitalists suffer a loss (notice, though, that the workers are not at
risk of losing their earnings -- so much for Marx's exploitation
of workers).
Also notice that the feedback loop consists solely of consumers
buying the products of producers? In essence, the consumers play zero
role in the creation of the product. I think that this is what is
changing. I notice it specifically in The
Lego Group (TLG). They have been producing high-quality plastic
toys for almost the entire duration of the plastic age. Their core
product, the Lego(tm)
brick, has remained unchanged for my entire lifetime. The bricks from
my childhood still merge with brand-new bricks.
Up until the creation of their Robotics Invention System, and its
RCX microcontroller, TLG operated in the mode I've described above.
TLG was very insular and didn't take much feedback from its consumers
other than sales figures. At the time the RIS was created, it was far
and away the most expensive Lego kit ever created. I'm confident that
they were doubtful of its success, but they were wrong. It was
successful beyond their wildest dreams, and it opened their eyes.
They discovered the Adult Fans Of Lego (AFOL) community. They thought
they were selling mostly to children, and that only a few mutant freak
adults played with children's toys. Fully half their sales of the RIS
were to adults.
TLG gingerly put out some feelers into the community. They found
out that these AFOLs were creating models equally as ambitious as
Lego's Master Builders, and that they were buying thousands of dollars
worth of Lego products. They have now added a fan-created kit to
their lineup. They've added bulk bricks to their online store. They
are slowly learning to work with their consumers. As they do so, they
turn consumers into customers. This tightens the feedback loop and
reduces the business risk.
Fast forward to the present. Steve Hassenplug with a few
cohorts, have in essence created a whole new genre of Lego designs: The Great Ball
Contraption. It's a very simple and sublime idea: define a
standard for interconnecting Lego constructions so that a module
accepts Lego soccer balls into an input bin, and then transports them
into the next module's input bin. It's a great theme for an existing
Lego club to pursue, or around which to start a new one.
TLG could use this idea to tighten the feedback loop further.
Right now, the only way to accumulate a significant number of Lego
soccer balls is to purchase many soccer games. TLG could put together
a GBC club kit. This kit would consist of the GBC standard, and
several hundred soccer balls. Somebody who wanted to start a GBC club
would purchase the kit, split up the balls, copy the GBC spec and get
their friends together.
Consumers just buy things. Customers help design products, and
help sell them. This is radical.
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Taking the money out of politics
Many well-intentioned
people think that it's possible to remove the influence of money
from politics. A coin has two faces: on one face you have the
influence of money on politics, and on the other face you have the
influence of politics on money. What would a coin with only one side
look like? How can politics possibly control companies without
companies wanting to control politics?
As long as the people give politicians the power to control
companies, companies are going to try to control politicians. If the
people don't give politicians that power, politicians have no
influence to peddle. Without influence to peddle, companies have two
choices: waste money buying politicians who can't help them, or spend
the money competing harder with other companies.
There is one and only one way to successfully take money out of
politics: to take politics out of money. As long as corrupt
politicians have influence to sell, there will be corrupt businessmen
to buy it. The problem here is not corrupt politicians or
corrupt businessmen. The problem is that the people have chosen to
give up their market power over corporations. They have turned that
power into political power and concentrated it in politicians. This
is wrong. Until this is fixed, no other change will help matters. If
you have a screen door on your submarine, running your pump faster or
slower, or diving higher or lower will not help you.
In order to take the politics out of money, you need a general
agreement in society that market regulation of companies is
sufficient. We don't have that now. Many people think that
corporations are evil and need to be controlled. They do, but the
profit motive is sufficient. Let's take an example from the initial
URL. He lays the blame for obese americans on cheap high-calorie
food, and says that corporations sell this food because it's
profitable. This is all true. It's only profitable because people
want to buy it. He doesn't say so, but I think that he is convinced
that people are willing to put up with obesity to get cheap food.
This seems like a ridiculous notion given the number of people seeking
to lose weight. Instead of railing against corporations, he needs to
start his own corporation to sell food that tastes good, and uses the
more expensive ingredients that won't make you fat.
Only in America could you find a market for low-fat cheese.
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Schooling via Externalities
"Public" (that is, publicly-funded, not open to the
public) schools generate large amounts of angst. It is obvious
that our method of schooling our children is not particularly
effective. There's a lot of ignorant smart people out there. Where
were they in public school? How do we solve this problem? Democrats
are influenced by the left when they call for more public control of
schools. Republicans are influenced by the right when they call for
school vouchers.
The problem, it seems to me, is the public education is "free".
That's what socialists want: for everything to be free of market
considerations. If something has no price, it cannot be controlled by
the market. According to socialist arguments, market control
is the problem; replacing it by political control solves the
problem. But not everybody is propelled by socialist arguments. Many
want public schooling for two reasons: first, because it's injust for
a child to have parents who don't value schooling, and second, because
educated citizens create an externality. If people around you are
better able to run their lives, they'll create benefits that fall on
other people.
The first argument is easily disposed of. If public schools exist
to save children from bad parents, then why does public schooling
start at age five? Why not start immediately after birth? A child's
basic personality is set by age three. If public funding of schooling
is to achieve the goal, then public funding of parenting should start
as soon as a child is born. Children should be taught to walk, talk,
and use a toilet by trained educators. Reductio ad absurdum -- at
least I hope that everyone agrees that that is absurd!
The second argument -- that externalities justify public funding of
education -- is more interesting. I see two problems with it.
First, the existance of positive externalities of an action is not
evidence that the action needs to be publicly funded. If political
priorities were set rationally (which they are not -- for all that
behavioral economists claim that people do not make rational
decisions, their alternative is not particularly rational either),
then something would be publicly funded ONLY if the public gain
exceeded the public cost AND if the private cost exceeded the private
gain. If individuals gain a benefit from educating themselves, then
they'll be willing to pay for it.
Secondly, look at the incentives. If taxpayers fund public
education because of externalities, then funding it beyond the value
of the externalities is irrational. If you happen to have children in
school at the time, then you'll be willing to pay more. These two
effects guarantee that public schooling will never have sufficient
money.
We will never have the best schools, much less adequate schools,
until we separate school and
state.
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Perfect Competition, Perfect Markets
If you talk to people who are opposed to solving problems via the
market, some of them will bring up an odd objection. They'll say that
you only get optimum resource allocation in a completely free market,
with so many buyers and sellers that no one could influence the
market, and with "perfect information". Two examples: David C. Korten,
and John
E. Ikerd.
If those conditions do not exist -- if there is not perfect
competition -- then these people think the case for government
intervention is proven. This is foolish. When choosing between two
possibilities, you do not compare one against perfection and if it's
found lacking, choose the other. You compare the two choices against
each other.
Many people think that government control of monopolies eliminates
the problem of monopolies. This is foolish. They compare how
monopolies would behave without government control against how
monopolies would behave when controlled perfectly by government.
They're making a very simple logical error. Government is itself a
monopoly! All that they're doing is substituting the need to control
multiple monopolies with the need to control one monopoly.
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On the Impossibility of Successfully Regulating Businesses
Many businesses are regulated by one agency or another. For
example, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms. Or another,
the Federal Communications Commission. Or another, the Food & Drug
Administration.
The trouble with any of these regulatory agencies is that they have
two basic choices: regulate from a position of ignorance, or regulate
using experts (or any point between). If they choose ignorance, then
the business may well get away with things it shouldn't, or be
prevented from doing things that cause no harm. If they choose
experts, well, where do those experts come from? They come from the
industry, in which case you have to wonder if they'll be willing to
regulate their former employer. Or, they come from academia. The
trouble is that, once hired by the regulatory agency, there is a huge
incentive for the regulated company to bribe the employee with the
offer of a higher-paying job once they've influenced legislation in
the company's favor.
Obviously, regulation is still possible, and goes on every day. I
suggest that that regulation is not as successful as the creators of
the regulation promised it would be.
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Chenango Canal
The Chenango
Canal connected Utica and Binghampton in New York State from 1837
to 1878. The Canal was first seriously proposed in 1826. It was
thought even then that a role of government was to help businesses, so
the promoters of the Canal introduced a bill in the New York State
legislature for seven years, until in 1833 the amount of $1,000,000
was authorized for the building of the canal.
The frequent reader of this blog will not be surprised to find that
the canal cost over $2,500,000 to complete. Moreover, counting the
cost of operation, interest on the bonds, plus a failed bid to extend
the canal by 33 miles, the total cost of the Canal was $6,871,209.
The total amount returned in tolls? $744,021. The difference of
$6,127,188 had to be made up by state revenues from the Erie Canal.
The Canal lost money. It lost a lot of money. Were it
run by a private company, everyone would of course say that this was a
disaster. Because it was run by the State of New York, some people
try to dismiss any need for profit. They will tell you "governments
are not supposed to make a profit." or "It's the government's job to
invest in things that won't turn a profit." This is foolishness,
though.
Resources are limited; even and especially government resources.
So what should a government spend its citizens money on? Why, those
things that create the most benefit, of course. And how do you
measure that benefit? Why, by profit, of course. The trouble is that
governments forget this. They listen to the promoters of projects,
and they believe the wild-eyed description of the potential benefits.
For the Chenango Canal, it was all the businesses that would spring up
along the route of the canal, exploiting the resources of the region,
bringing coal from the hills into the city.
This is not a history lesson, of course. Governments still work
the same way, foolishly believing the inflated benefits of this
project or that project. In my own part of New York State, there is
no four-lane limited access highway. This, we are promised, is what
is holding back development of the North Country. "Build it and they
will come" I actually heard the Jefferson County economic developer
say. Listen
to the story for yourself.
What keeps them making these mistakes is support from citizens who
think these unproductive investments are good. When your government
wants to spend money, say "No thanks! I know better how to spend my
own money."
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I've seen everything now

Edward Hasbrouck (left, above) is an outspoken
leftist. Perry Metzger (right, above) is a propertarian
anarchist. Yet in a posting to Dave Farber's Interesting
People list, Hasbrouck defends
private property while Metzger explains how and why ownership of
intellectual property in time reverts
to "the people".
Stunning, absolutely stunning. I never fail to be amazed by the
universe at least once every day.
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Software and assumptions
When you write a piece of software, you always have in mind a
certain set of assumptions. You are thinking about a certain speed of
CPU, a certain amount of memory, and a certain amount of storage.
Those assumptions condition the structure of the program. For
example, I wrote (with Patrick Naughton) Painter's Apprentice back in 1983.
The program was written to be a clone of MacPaint. In order to make
it work as well as MacPaint, I assumed
monochrome graphics from the beginning. That assumption worked its
way into every bit of the code of that program. The algorithms
chosen, the amount of memory consumed, and the file formats for
storing the images, were all a part and parcel of the program. It
would not have been possible to write the program to the same effect
without making those assumptions. In fact, assuming that I didn't
have to make those assumptions is itself an assumption. No magic
wand.
Similarly, our public schooling system has an assumption built into
it: that every child will go through the school system. I've written
about the failure of this system of compulsion one, two, and three times before. Vouchers
will not work to improve the school system as long as school is
compulsory. There is no magic wand.
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Economics of spam
Lots of people have proposed the idea that spam is simply an
economic problem: If people have to pay to send each spam, they would
send less. This is not a correct idea. I say this so flatly because
people can already ask strangers to send them email with a monetary
attachment. When they get email from a stranger, they autorespond to
it with a message that says "Hi. Thanks for sending me email. I've
never gotten email from you before, so I want you to pay me $1.17 to
read your email. All you have to do is sign up for paypal, and send
me $1.17 via paypal. When I get it, I'll know which email to read."
The $1.17 is a key that points them to the specific email that was
sent.
Nobody does this. Why? Because it doesn't work. Do you think I'm
wrong? No problem! Just send $1.17 to my paypal address and include
your message in Paypal's comment field. If you have too much to say,
end with "to be continued...", and send the continuation to my main address.
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Job Destruction
Politicians usually brag about how they created X jobs
during their rein. I wonder how many New York politicians are going
to brag about having destroyed jobs? That is, after all, what they
did by signing the minimum wage bill into law. Nobody knows exactly
how many people will be thrown out of work by this bill. And yet we
economists can say without any doubt that some people will be
thrown out of work.
I've blogged about this before:
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Public Choice
Public
Choice economics is a theory that says that people in government
operate from the same selfish incentives as anybody else.
Surprisingly that theory has not convinced all economists yet. That
must be interpreted as proof that some economists are dunderheads,
because the following pair of cartoons written by Wiley Miller make it
completely obviously true.
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No thanks, Elliot.

A week ago, Elliot Spitzer, New York State's current Attorney General and
Governor-elect (in his dreams), put out a press release explaining how
he was saving
New Yorkers from being able to borrow money. He didn't put it
that way, but I do. He thinks that he's saving New Yorkers from high
interest rate (payday) loans.
I don't think Elliot understands interest. There is a competitive market for
loaning money to people with no capital. It is a very competitive
market, because the product being rented is absolutely identical. You
don't have to take the money to the shop to have a mechanic examine it
for defects. You know that $500 at 150% interest is cheaper than $500
at 200%.
In a competitive market, holders of capital wish to earn a fair
rate of interest on it. Ahhhh, but what is "fair"? Consumers decide
what is fair. A business makes an offer, another business makes
another offer, and yet another another. The consumer chooses the
offer that is best for them. This keeps the businesses honest and
fair. Businesses that aren't honest and fair are competed out of
business.
Or, rather, there would be a competitive market, except
that New York State chooses to interfere in it. New York State caps
the interest rate for payday loans to 16% per annum. This doesn't
make the market go away, it just sends the market over to the Mafia.
No doubt Elliot Spitzer thinks that he's fighting
organized
crime.
So odd, then, that he takes actions which create new profits for the
Mafia!
The nature of interest is such that you cannot dictate the value of
it. If you try to cap interest rates, you can only have two effects:
people who need money won't get it, or they'll get it illegally.
Either way, no positive effect is created from this law. If Elliot
Spitzer were an honest man (but alas, he is a politician), he would
refuse to enforce this law. Certainly there are more than enough laws that he can pick
and choose among the ones he wishes to enforce. Too bad for the
citizens of New York State that he has chosen to enforce this one.
UPDATE: TM Lutas points out that people are desirous of usury laws,
and that consequently we need to pander to that desire. Nope. People
also desire to commit suicide. Does that mean we should hand them a gun?
Of course not. People need to learn that interest is a characteristic
of the world, just like 32ft/sec/sec. If you step off a cliff, you're going
to get hurt. If you want to borrow money and you have no or worse credit,
you're going to have to pay a lot of money. Would I that it were otherwise?
Of course, but neither do I think that everyone should have to walk
around covered with foam rubber so they don't get hurt from falling. If
we did that to children, they would never learn to avoid falling, because
falling wouldn't hurt. They would be handicapped relative to a normal
adult. We shouldn't treat adults like children.
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Political vs. Economic power, part 2
I fear that I may have misled some people in my earlier posting on
Political vs. Economic power. I got a
response from someone suggesting that political power derives from the
use of physical force. Not true! What about, say, the Knights of
Columbus, or the Rotary, or the Shriners, or any other voluntary
organization? They change the world by cooperating with each other
towards a goal. This is political power.
Governments use political power, but they do not create it.
A government is unique among organizations because it has, or at
least tries to have, a
monopoly on force in a certain physical area. The United States
Government is different than most governments because its citizens
reserve the right to keep and bear arms, and because it is comprised
of states, each of which maintains its own National Guard troops. The
U.S. Government is a well regulated
monopoly, controlled by a well
regulated militia. Or, at least, it was designed to be a well
regulated monopoly. Lately, the regulators have been falling down on
the job.
A lot of people don't appreciate this. I suspect that you, gentle
reader do.
My correspondent further deponeth that consumers don't regulate,
because that would require the use of political power, or the legal
right to use force. That's also not true. A voltage regulator
controls the level of voltage in your computer. No law gives it the
power to regulate, and yet regulate it does.
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Deregulation
I'm not a big believer in the concept of "deregulation". First,
because most of what is called "deregulation" is actually just a
different kind of government regulations. Second, because the
real way to deregulate something is to give it monopoly
status with no government oversight. That is, you have to remove
consumer choice, because consumer choice regulates corporate actions.
Let's look at some monopolies to see if they're truly deregulated:
- Gas, Water, Electric, Sewage, Cable TV
- These are often
supplied by a government entity, or else under a franchise agreement.
While the actual people runnning the service may not be elected,
ultimately they are answerable to someone who is.
- Telephone
- Every state has a Public Utility Commission,
which controls telephone service.
- Copyright
- Copyright expires eventually, in theory. In
practice, nothing owned by a corporation has gone into the public
domain since WWI, and nothing owned by an individual since WWII. So,
my theory predicts that copyrights are effectively unregulated, with
copyright owners taking advantage of purchasers. Doesn't quite work
out that way, because while company FOO has a monopoly on artist BAR's
work, they're competing against all other companies in the market for
the fan's dollars. Consumers still have some regulating power here.
- Patents
- Patents expire after 20 years, so you should
expect to see a decreasing amount of abuse as a patent nears the end
of its life, and consumers gain the power to regulate.
I think my theory holds up pretty well.
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Political vs. Economic power
Political power comes from a willingness of one person to cooperate
with another simply because they agree on a goal. Economic power
comes from someone having a sufficient quantity of resources that they
can trade with other people to achieve a goal they may not agree on.
These two types of power are fundamentally different. Economic power
can be consumed. Political power cannot. Economic power is created
by the slow process of wealth creation. Political power can be
created in a moment by the action of a mob.
A wealthy person does not automatically have economic power.
Simply buying something is not expressing one's economic power. You
have to buy something whose value others do not agree with. For
example, if you build an ordinary house in an ordinary location, you
are simply buying a house. If you hire Frank Lloyd Wright to create
Fallingwater,
you are using your economic power to create something that perhaps
nobody values but you.
If you believe, as I do, that the best society is created when
power (of all stripes) is widely distributed, then you'll prefer
economic power to political power. The process of exercizing economic
power acts to redistribute it. Political power, however, tends to
become concentrated. Look at the USA. Its Constitution was designed
to specifically prevent the federal government from becoming a
concentration of power, and yet it happened anyway.
There seems to be only one way to disperse political power:
splitting up.
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A Free Market is a Robust Economy
One reason why some people don't like free markets is because of
the waste that they engender. People are allowed to create products
that nobody will buy. People are allowed to put huge amounts of
resources into creating a product that isn't as good as an existing
product. If you had a really smart person in charge of the economy,
they could get rid of that waste, and only make the good stuff that
people want to buy.
Apart from the difficulty, nay, impossibility of finding anybody
that smart, and the pressure that person would face to pick his
friends' products, you also have the fallibility of humans. If you
have a single entity in charge, which has the ability to coerce
everyone into following their plan, then you have a problem. You see,
ninety-nine out of a hundred times their decision will be correct, or
at least better than a free market. That hundredth time, though,
they'll be so wrong as to completely destroy the economy.
A free market does many things that are wrong, but it never does
just one thing. Because it never does just one thing, and often does
many things, it's extremely unlikely that everyone will do the wrong
thing at the same time. Because of this, free markets are robust.
They are not subject to a system-wide failure.
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Fair Trade
Earlier I wrote about Fair Trade.
Don Boudreaux expands
on the idea I suggest in my first two paragraphs -- that Fair Trade is
not particularly fair -- and adds that it's probably not economically
efficient either. You'd think that would make him angry, but since he
ends with "Oh well...." he seems more resigned than angry.
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Building Codes
A friend comments on "Are
poor people stupid?":
Housing codes don't belong in the list. Substandard houses are a
public bad, like drunk drivers and clogged sewers. It makes sense to
prohibit them, rather than letting a fire in the substandard house
burn down your house as well, while the judgement-proof owner walks
away. (Several people were killed a year or two ago in my
neighborhood thanks to collapsing buildings.)
The trouble here is that he's not being a good economist. He's
saying "bad things happen, let's prohibit the cause." That's fine
enough, but what else happens when you do that? He also
doesn't ask what happens when you don't enact laws. So let's
go down those roads that my friend didn't.
Once you've established a principle that something should be
regulated, the next question becomes: exactly how? The theory here is
that everyone sits down and decides how to mitigate the harm. What
must be prohibited so that the harm does not occur. Let's say that
you want to make a building more resistant to electrical fires.
Perhaps some fires are caused by overloaded extension cords. Well,
you can require that there be an outlet every 8 feet along the wall,
you can specify a minimum wire size, you can specify a maximum number
of outlets per circuit breaker, etc.
The problem here is that the regulators have been given
discretionary power that they didn't have before. They could greatly
benefit a copper wire manufacturer by requiring one gauge thicker
wire. They could benefit outlet manufacturers by requiring more
outlets per foot of wall. Perhaps that power relationship gets
expressed through out-and-out bribery, when a manufacturer pays money
to a legislator. Perhaps it's expressed at re-election time, when a
manufacturer donates to the legislator's re-election fund. Perhaps
it's expressed through the legislator of a district with a big copper
wire manufacturer saying "I'll vote for a bill that you want if you
add in a requirement for thicker wire."
There are many ways in which this power relationship can be
expressed. It's naive to think that legislators won't use that power.
Assume that a legislator does not have a corrupt bone in their body.
They were elected into office by making promises to the citizens of
their district. From their perspective, they have been asked to make
good on those promises. Other legislators have the same problem to
solve, so they each trade on fulfilling promises. From their
non-corrupt point of view, nobody is hurt (much) by being protected a
little more than necessary.
The trouble here is that even with perfect people in office, you
still have legislators doing unnecessary things for people.
Even with no corruption, you still get waste. Where does the trouble
come from? By citizens asking their legislators to do too much.
What happens if citizens start with the principle that laws exist
to stop people from doing violence to each other, and that all other
relationships between people must be voluntary? In other words, what
if the people agree that there will be no building codes?
You have the usual problem that people have when spending lots of
money on something they cannot necessarily evaluate themselves. How
do you find out what gauge wire was used when it's hidden behind the
walls? The answer is through the use of certification marks, and
careful purchasing. Right now, you can purchase any old kind of
extension cord with any gauge wire, and plug it in. Perfectly legal.
Nobody makes unsafe ones, though. Why? Because they can't get UL to
certify their extension cord unless it uses a reasonable gauge wire
for its length and current capacity. UL is a private party which
sells access to its certification mark. A building can come with a
certification mark that it meets certain requirements.
That handles the case where people need to worry about their own
building. What about the case where people need to worry about their
neighbor's building burning down? Very simply, they can ask to see
their neighbor's building's certification. And their neighbor's and
so on. You would have a meta-certification for a building which
stated that not only was it certified, but all buildings within reach
of fire were also certified.
What if somebody's building lost its certification? You would
think that their building would lose all its value, so that keeping up
the certification would be identical to having power, water, or sewer.
What if somebody built a new building without certification? Again,
who would be willing to occupy such a building? A lot on a block
where all the other buildings would be expensive, simply because of
the value of all the other certified buildings. It wouldn't make
sense to build a building without certification. Surely the rents
would be that much lower.
I've made several hand-waving assertions here about the costs of
things, and creating new companies from nothing. It takes money to do
those, money that is not obviously spent with our existing building
code regulations. What you must recognize, as a good economist, is
that these regulations are costing us money right now. They're
costing us money in the form of deadweight: all the little trade-offs
that our theoretically incorruptible legislators have made to get the
laws their citizens want. They also cost money because of the cost of
complying with the law. It's the same idea as the transaction cost of
purchasing the certification for the building.
I believe that it's poor economics to ignore those costs and say
"Well, we must have regulations because a free market solution costs money."
A free market solution is not impossible, but is instead simply more or
less expensive than the regulated solution if
all costs are tallied up. From my perspective as a pacifist, the
expense of using the violence of the state to coerce peaceful people
into creating a purported societal benefit is too high a price to pay.
Since all evil has fraud or force at its root, I think that the
shortest path to good is taken by avoiding the use of violence or
lying, even when done to create something good.
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Selling your vote
Brad
Templeton points out that by-mail absentee ballots are subject to
vote selling. Our secret ballots keep the secret from the vote
counters, yes, but they also keep your vote secret from everyone else.
That means that nobody can verify how you voted. That means that
nobody would reasonably buy your vote because you have no way to prove
the vote that you sold. Unless, that is, you voted using an absentee
ballot by mail.
The presumption here is that selling your vote is a bad thing.
Let's look at it from the other direction. A vote in favor of their
candidate is worth money to them. They could buy your vote if they
could trust you to the vote you sold. We have worked hard to make
that impossible, and yet the desire to buy a vote is still there.
They will seek to buy your vote in other ways. They will blanket you
with appeals to vote their way. They will have the candidate promise
to vote for things you want (do you remember what he promised last
time? Did he deliver?)
Vote-buying has two good effects. One, it recognizes the reality
that commercial interests stand to benefit from your vote, and why
shouldn't you share in the gain? Two, it forces the party buying the
votes to actually expend money. Once that money is spent, it's gone.
So, they have to think very hard about the value of your vote to them.
Perhaps they would do better to spend that money on something
else.
UPDATE 11/7: TM Lutas
points out that if vote buying were legal, then the cheapest way to take
over a country would be to simply buy the votes needed. No war or coup needed.
Of course, politicians are currently legally buying our votes
using OUR OWN TAX DOLLARS. "Vote for me and I'll do X, Y, and Z for you!"
Yeah, right, you and what bank?
I would argue that our government has already been
taken over by a hostile power in exactly the manner TM Lutas fears,
and worse, they used our own money to do it.
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Are poor people stupid?
Are poor people stupid? Obviously a lot of people think so. They
mean to protect the poor by denying them the ability to work for a low
wage (minimum wage laws), or to live in a frugally-built house
(building codes), or to force them to educate their children
(compulsory schooling), and to compel everyone to pay for the
education of the poor (school taxes).
If poor people really are stupid, then a different set of
policies is needed than if poor people were merely poor for the moment.
If poor people are stupid, then you would expect them to remain
poor because of their stupidity. This could be discovered by tracking
a sample of poor people, to see if they stay poor. That's been done,
though, and only a small minority of poor people are poor from year to
year.
The majority of poor people drift in and out of poverty. Sometimes
they're young people just getting started. Can't afford a house,
maybe can't even afford a car. Don't have much work experience, so
they have to work at "starter" jobs. Other people might be able to
earn a higher income, but are prevented by their life situation.
Perhaps they're single parents, perhaps they're on probation and tied
to a location with a poor job market. Perhaps they're divorced and
sharing custody? Other people might have lost their old job and are
temporarily poor while retraining themselves for a new career.
Policies which assume that these people are poor because they're
stupid are not just philosophically wrong, they're actively harmful.
A person of ordinary intelligence must be presumed to be able to make
the best of their choices. If we remove choices because we don't want
them to make stupid choices, we make it harder for them to pick the
best choices. For example, if we force all new houses to be of a fixed
minimum quality (building codes), then we force these people to live
in older housing not covered by building codes. It's very
presumptious to say that that's best for them. We should allow
everyone the most freedom to choose, even the minority of poor people
who are actually stupid. Controlling the actions of adults degrades
their judgement and turns them into moral infants.
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Monopolies and market power
Various people, David
Isenberg among them, seem to think that a monopoly has market
power. It uses that power to dominate its market. By dominating its
market, it is able to restrict its output and raise prices, creating
profit margins that are only accessible to monopolies.
That would seem to be obvious, wouldn't it? No, as I've written before. In a
free market, you will sometimes have market conditions that allow a
single firm to out-compete everyone else. Perhaps the firm is
incredibly flexible, has some really smart employees, has a
first-mover advantage, or was simply surrounded by morons. They have
managed to put everyone else out of business. By the definition, they
have a monopoly.
They have gotten their monopoly by being successful. We want to
reward success, so we should not get in the way of monopoly formation.
"But won't they create monopoly pricing?", you ask. Not necessarily.
Perhaps they have achieved their monopoly by lowering their prices so
low that nobody else could compete. They are a monopoly, they are
dominating the market, and they have the market power to exclude
competitors. Yet none of these have any negative consequences. It is
monopoly prices that are the negative consequences. I must mention
here that nobody tries to do this anymore, because these days a
monopoly is presumed to have the power to charge monopoly prices.
What matters more than anything else is whether a monopoly has the
ability to restrict entrants. Clearly any business has the ability to
*offer* monopoly pricing to their customers. If they can restrict
competitors while offering monopoly pricing, then market intervention
can be justified. In no other case does it make sense.
On the other hand, perhaps you have a market which is already being
interfered with. Let's say that some infrastructure was created under
one set of laws which benefits an existing company. Now the laws have
been changed to make that infrastructure harder to create. This may
have the side effect of restricting entry into the market, giving the
company a monopoly and the ability to charge monopoly profits. In
that case, either more or less market intervention is necessary.
Either the company should have its prices set by a government board,
or else the increased cost in building the new infrastructure should
be subsidized, or the company should be forced to share the
infrastructure with competitors.
I hope that you can see here that regulations do not lead to
freedom. Regulations lead to more regulations. Perhaps a better
solution is to go back and look at the reason the infrastructure was
made more expensive. Maybe the problem wasn't as bad as to warrant
all those regulations? Perhaps that law would be best repealed? That
would require that legislators would have to admit to making mistakes.
This would give their opponents ammunition in the next election cycle.
That's probably why politicians only admit to mistakes when they plan
to retire anyway. That's why I don't hold out too much hope for reform.
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Flu Vaccines, in a nutshell
Russ Roberts caught some nutjob attempting to explain the shortage
of flu vaccines on the basis that "no
one's in charge". Good call, Russ! No one is in charge of blogs
and yet there's no shortage of readers or writers.
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What comes after fiber optic cable?
Fiber
optic cable has a lot in common with railroads.
- They are both very expensive to install.
- Both are sunk costs (once installed, the capital costs cannot be
recovered except through sales.)
- Both are expensive to access. For a railroad, you need to build a
siding. For fiber, you need to splice into the cable.
- Switching is expensive.
Railroads were replaced, for all those reasons, by the personal
automobile. What will fiber be replaced by?
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There is not a fixed amount of work
If you travel to India, one of the first things you see are women
sweeping the streets. They use a little "corn" broom which is about
three inches in diameter, and two feet long. It's about as
inefficient as you can get short of sweeping with your bare hands.
No doubt the reason they don't use more efficient brooms (e.g. put it on a
stick and weave the broom wider) is because that would put some
sweepers out of work. There is, after all, only a certain amount of
street to sweep. I think that India is, in general, under the thrall
of an economic misconception. It's not just India, of course, but
world-wide. It's not an old misconception, like the flat earth
theory. It's a current
misconception.
It's the idea that there is a fixed amount of work.
I believe that Ashutosh
Sheshabalaya in his book Rising
Elephant is falling prey to the same misconception. He somehow
thinks that there is a fixed amount of work, a fixed amount of jobs, a
fixed amount of wealth, and if India becomes wealthy, that the US must
suffer. Even if a job disappears in the US, and an equivalent job
appears in India, that does not mean that the US economy is harmed in
any way. First, we're getting the same job done for less money.
Second, we've freed up someone to do a new job, a better job, a more
highly-paid job.
You want our jobs, India? You can have them. We have plenty to
share. We'll just make more.
Update, 11/3: Got a reply from Tosh Sheshabalaya. This is very good, because
it shows that he's not just interested in throwing an opinion out there.
He's seeking to close the loop between reader and writer. Rather than a
lecture, he's looking for a conversation. Good job, Tosh!
He repudiates the idea of a fixed amount of work, and attributes that
to the reviews. His main point seems to be that India is doing very well,
and stands to do much better. He's right! But that doesn't mean that
we'll do poorly just because India is doing well.
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The Dictator's Guide to Wealth
Dear Dictator,
So, you want
to be a wealthy dictator, eh? You've got a bit of a personal problem,
then. Most dictators become such because they love having power over
people. The trouble is that when you control people, you eliminate
their ability to create wealth. The more control you retain, the
poorer your people will be. You cannot have both wealth and power.
You must choose between them.
You're still reading, eh? Okay, then obviously you've chosen
wealth over power. I have more bad news for you. You must also allow
your people to become wealthy as well. You do this for three reasons.
First, if you let them become wealthy, they will have an incentive to
work hard, be creative, and take risks. Second, if they are wealthy,
they will be happy under your thumb, and won't try to revolt. Third,
when they become wealthy, you will be able to take a portion of their
wealth.
Incentives matter. People have to have an incentive to work hard.
You could beat them, but that's expensive and unproductive. It
creates not an incentive to work hard, but an incentive to avoid the
beatings, which is not at all the same thing. You get the same effect
when you put criminals in jail for committing crimes. Their goal then
becomes not not committing the crimes, but instead avoiding getting
caught.
When people get to keep most of the results of their efforts,
they'll work hard. Being a dictator, that means that they'll be
working hard to make you wealthy. The wealth flows directly from the
hard work, and the hard work from the reward. So, your own wealth is
contingent upon them keeping as much of their wealth as you can
manage. The more wealth they have, the more wealth they'll be able to
invest in creating more wealth. This process has no end, and there
are no limits to the wealth you can accumulate in this manner.
Wealth does not itself bring happiness, but misery surely brings
unhappiness. I don't refer to poverty. Poor people can be happy if
they accept their poverty. The people who do not accept their povery,
but instead struggle against it, are miserable. When you are
over-controlling people, keeping them from improving their station in
life, you are creating misery. Unless you are a cruel dictator, you
don't want to create misery. Miserable people are desperate people.
They will do risky things, like attempt to overthrow your rule. The
prime risk of any dictator is being overthrown. You can reduce that
risk by spending lots of money on an armed force, but that's an
expensive way to earn money. So, to protect your position, you must
eliminate as much misery as possible.
If you take a fixed amount of wealth from everyone, you will get
more from the wealthy people. Therefore, to be as prosperous as you
can, you should encourage people to become wealthy by taking only a
fixed percentage of their wealth. If, instead, you punish the wealthy
by taking more and more of their money as they get more, you will
decrease their interest in being wealthy.
So, to sum up, allow your people to have private property rights,
do what they're best at and trade without restriction for everything
else. Tax consumption, not income, because you want to encourage them
to create more capital. Use your power only to protect their (and
your!) property. This will maximize your wealth, and minimize the
risk of any nasty attacks by miserable people. As you raise your
family in splendor, be sure to educate your children as to the source
of their comfort. Teach them how to run a prosperous country, and you
will be able to pass your dictatorship on to them.
Remember that political control and economic control are completely
different things. If you want to see how wealth is truly rewarded,
look at the reign of Alan Greenspan over the U.S. Federal Reserve. He
has merely banished the scourge of inflation. For this, he has been
rewarded with lifetime employment, power and prestige. No one in
their right mind would think of overthrowing him. You, too, can live
that kind of a life: wealthy, powerful, and free of the risk of losing
your position.
If you think I'm talking about or to dictators, you'd be wrong.
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Compulsion Schooling 3
TMLutas
still thinks I should be kinder to schools than I have been, if only so as not to
offend people whose cooperation is necessary to move to a kinder,
gentler school system. The trouble here is that most everybody thinks
that schools can be reformed. They see problems with public schools,
but they're fixable by doing more schooling. They suggest full-day
schooling, or schooling at an earlier age, or year-round schooling.
Or maybe they think they're fixable by introducing a tiny bit of
markets, so that children attending a measurably worse school can
be bussed to a school which is less bad.
I want to be very, very clear here. Our system of public schooling
is broken on the most fundamental basic level. The foundation has a
really big crack in it, and no glue, bondo, cement, or toothpaste will
fix it. The crack in the foundation is the very essence of public
schooling: that everyone is required to be there. First, there is no
justification for destroying the freedom of children in this way.
None whatsoever. Children are people too, and love freedom as much as
adults. Second, the people who really don't want to be there will do
their best to make life miserable for everyone else. Why not? They
have nothing better to do, from their perspective. Third, even the
people who want to be there will have a harder time learning things
simply because they are being forced to. Learning is an intensely
intellectual practice, and caging the beast doesn't make it more
rational.
Saying anything less leaves space for tinkering. The schools
cannot be fixed by changing them in small ways. They can't even be
fixed by changing them in large ways. They have to be changed at the
lowest level, by making them optional. Only in this way will they
live up to their potential, up to the children's potential, up to the
teacher's potential, up to the administrator's potential.
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Secession
Well, if Walter
Williams can talk about secession, so can I. While there is much
to love about America, there is much to dislike about its government.
It surely seems as if the intent of the founders of this country
intended to create a system of competing governments. The federal
government has a strictly limited set of things it can do. All else
is relegated to the states.
To hear people, America will live or die based on the results of
the Presidential election later this fall. That's wrong, that's just
wrong. The federal government is not supposed to be a concentration
of power. While some people are worried about the power of
corporations, they seem to be neglecting the power of the federal
government. Corporate monopolies use the monopoly power of a
government to force themselves on you. The trouble with federal
government power is that it is the ultimate monopoly. It's the one
with the guns that makes all the other monopolies work. If you live
in the United States, you have no choice but to abide by federal
government decisions.
The only way to escape a bad federal government decision is to
emigrate from the United States. There are many reasons why that is
difficult to do. If you look at the Constitution, there are many
features designed to make it easy to escape a bad state government
decision.
Everyone reading this can think of a round dozen really bad things
that the federal government does. I don't intend to present my
personal list here, because that would distract from the subject. My
point here is that if you had the option of staying in the United
States, and moving to a different state to escape those bad things,
then you would be happier. More likely what would happen is that the
states wouldn't do those bad things because it's predictable
that people would vote "with their feet" to change those policies.
What to do
Of course you already know that I'm going to suggest secession. A
lot of people think that secession was decided by the Civil War to be
out of the question. You can go read Walter Williams article, linked
from above. Without relying on the legality of unilateral secession,
I would shoot for bilateral secession. A region like New York State's
North Country (draw a line from Watertown
to Plattsburgh;
everything north of that is the North Country) is a net receiver of
tax dollars from both New York State and the federal government. I
would start with the idea that "you are paying us to remain in the
United States. There is no sign that those payments will ever cease.
We would like to leave and save you that money."
The key to this secession working is to re-create the intended
conditions of the Constitution: competing governments keeping down the
bad policies proposed by politicians. So, free immigration from the
US, and free emigration back to the US. No tariffs with the US, no
tolls, no travel restrictions. Stick with the dollar as the currency
as long as the US doesn't inflate it. Stick with 120V power. Stick
with driving on the right-hand side. Stick with all the things that
people are used to, only make it so that the new country will thrive
if it improves on USA policies.
Unrealistic, perhaps, to suggest that a region with no cohesive
identity, no existing government, could secede. Maybe it would be
better, then, to move to New Hampshire and join the Free State Project?
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Compulsion Schooling
I've been reading John Taylor Gatto's The
Underground History of American Education. As one of the most
socialist institutions in America, compulsion schooling must go.
There are, however, so many people whose livelihoods are involved in
schooling, that closing the schools will take many, many years. The
process has already started. Home-schooling is legal in all 50
states. It's an extremely rewarding activity on its own basis, no
matter the fact that your droplet is helping to turn the mill wheel of
school destruction.
For we must make no bones about it. The system of compulsory
schooling cannot be reformed, because it is at its heart broken. You
cannot simultaneously compulsorily school and voluntarily educate
children.
UPDATE: continued
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Compulsion Schooling 2
TMLutas thinks I should be kinder to schools. Sorry, no can do. Schools
are heartless and barbaric and should be treated as such.
He does make the good point, not incompatible with my point, that the
infrastructure we have created for schools can be reused. Sure! Keep
the buildings, keep the bus runs, keep the classrooms. You can even pay
for them with tax dollars if you simply must. Let the teachers and
administrators teach individual classes, or form their own competing
schools, or even just provide baby-sitting services if that's what
parents want.
While it may look as if I think the people in schools are the problem,
I don't. The vast majority of teachers could be very good. The teachers
are not our enemies. They're as frustrated with the system as anybody.
Just ask them what makes them the most unhappy and they'll tell you:
the bureaucracy. Teachers would love to work in a private enterprise
system which possibly paid them less but provided for much more job
satisfaction and more .... education and less schooling.
UPDATE: continued
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I got my teeth cleaned
I got my teeth cleaned last Thursday. The dental hygenist is new
in the office. She used their nifty-snifty mouth camera system to get
a picture of a shadow which seemed to be a cavity. I guess that that
camera is not free to use, because when Dr. Carville looked at the
tooth, he also gave her a mild rebuke, saying "Who told you to use the
camera?"
I really like Dr. Carville. Like most small businessmen, he
realizes that there is no magic pool of money used to pay health care
costs. He understands that ultimately, individuals pay for their own
health care. The more he regulates his costs, the better his bottom
line. The better his bottom line, the less he can afford to charge,
and the more customers he will have.
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The cost of fiber optic cable, 2
Well, DANC is at it again. Their fiber loop is now
installed and built. They're crowing about having seven customers, so
"there must have been unmet demand." That's simply a ridiculous
notion. If I take $19 million dollars from the taxpayers of New York,
and redistribute it to poor unfortunate companies in the form of
subsidized (below-market) telecommunications facilities, of
course I would have customers.
In addition to the crowing, Tom continues to push his fantasy that
there was no fiber optic cable in St. Lawrence County (SLC). Thanks
To DANC, SLC will see a huge economic boom due to all the new fiber
optic cable. Similar claims were made for railroads when they were
built, even though some of them ended up as utter busts.
Back in the railroad boom days of the second half of the 1800's,
citizens could see if there was a railroad or not. It was rather
obvious. It was also obvious if they were getting a railroad, because
prior to a railroad being built, local investors were courted with
offers to sell stock. Back then, public infrastructure had to be sold
to the public through voluntary purchases. These days, DANC is funded
through tax dollars taken involuntarily, and it's much easier to fool
people about infrastructure.
Take a look at this picture (click on it to make it bigger. Note
that I edited the color of the two lower orange sleeves because they
have faded in the sunlight. They were the depicted color when they
were new.):
That picture was taken
on Rt. 56 a little south of Norwood. The location is not
particularly special, I just chose it because I could
take a nice photograph. What you're seeing is from top to bottom, the
DANC fiber, the Time-Warner fiber, and the Verizon fiber. So much for
the idea that there was no fiber in St. Lawrence County.
David Sommerstein of NCPR interviewed
Tom Sauter. David points out that Verizon and Time-Warner have
fiber networks. He asks Tom what's different. Sauter replies " This
is an open access network. The other two are proprietary networks
there to serve solely the business interests of the company that owns
them. This network is developed to benefit the north country region
as a piece of public infrastructure. So there's really a different
operating basis. It will support multiple service providers who will
compete with each other over the same platform."
What Tom is implying is that Time-Warner and Verizon are a duopoly.
Neither one has an incentive to lower their rates unless the other one
does, because the two cooperate to keep prices up rather than compete
for the largest amount of business. The trouble with this theory is
the practice that DANC has just demonstrated. All it takes to compete
with Time-Warner and Verizon is money. The maximum profit that either
one of them can take is limited to the risk that anyone is willing to
accept by installing fiber in the north country.
Tom is essentially expressing his ignorance of economics, or else
hoping to persuade others to be ignorant to advance his own cause.
Yes, Verizon and Time-Warner have proprietary networks that they hope
to make a profit from. Nobody who owns capital voluntarily gives it
away. They will spend it in the hopes of being able to make money on
it, or sell it at a profit. Everyone who has money that they're not
currently spending quickly figures this out. There is nothing wrong
with trying to make a profit, and Tom is trying to personally profit
from the DANC fiber by creating a need for his continued employment.
Nothing wrong with that, except that Tom is doing this by extorting
money from taxpayers. Worse, he's painting his efforts as being
better for the public than the profit-seeking behavior of Verizon and
Time-Warner.
That is essentially an anti-market idea, and one that I think is
bad for the interests of the public that Tom claims to uphold.
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Risk
I am a Quaker. Most (all?)
branches of Quakerism have a testimony against (that is, a objection
to) gambling. None of them have a testimony against insurance or
investments. Some Quakers are confused on this point, and object to
insurance as if it was betting. For example, one recently said
this:
And it violates Quaker principles as it is gambling. You have
a very complex array of options, and you have to gamble as to which
one will work best for you in the coming year. This year I made a
very bad bet! But why should I have to bet?
There is a difference between gambling, and other forms of risk. Life
is full of risk. You could stumble as you get out of bed and crack
your head open on the corner of your nightstand. Or you could stay in
bed all day, and have your ceiling fall on you in an earthquake.
There is absolutely no way to escape all risks in life. Gambling is
purely invented risk. You can escape the risks involved in gambling
simply by not gambling.
Not everyone values risk the same way. Most people are happy to turn
a small chance of a very bad thing happening into a certainty of a
slightly bad thing happening. This is called insurance. You can buy
different amounts of insurance, which let you take on more or less of
the risk of the very bad thing in return for paying a little less.
This is not gambling. This is simply an examination of your life
circumstances followed by a decision about the amount of risk you're
willing to accept. It is not a bet. You can choose not to gamble.
You cannot choose not to get sick. You cannot register a preference
for one illness over another.
The Quaker quoted above went on to say:
The interests of private insurance companies are to deny or
limit coverage whenever they can get away with it, and the health
insurance industry (in fact, the whole health care system in America)
is one of the least [honest?] industries that exist. We have to take
it out of their hands and make it controlled by the public
interest.
Unfortunately, it seems that many non-economists think that the
solution to all business problems is to turn them into government
problems. Curiously, these same people will happily relate problems
that they have had in getting the government to do a good job.
Particularly in this case, the market for insurance is not very free.
For the most part, insurance companies don't have to compete for your
dollar. You must buy automobile insurance if you own a car. If you
work for an employer larger than some size, your employer will
purchase health insurance, and you have no say in the matter other
than to switch jobs.
Okay, so we've settled that this problem is not a market problem,
it is a problem of regulation. The status quo is poor regulation.
How do we fix it? Given the history of poor regulation, it would be
insane to suggest that more poor regulation is likely to fix
the problem. Before I could support a call for more regulation, I'd
like to see the advocates of regulation fix the regulations we
currently have. If that can't be done, then I'd like to see the poor
regulations repealed, so that people can purchase insurance through
some voluntary organization of which you are a member.
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Abortion
Abortion is a problem here and everywhere, now and forever, because
it interferes with the creation of new life. Libertarians believe
fiercely that individuals have rights. Before a woman gets pregnant,
she is an individual. Shortly after she gives birth, there are two
individuals. Somehow, a new individual was created. This
individual's rights must be respected, without initiating coercion
against the mother in whose womb the baby was created.
A standard principle of libertarianism is that the best solutions
are discovered when people have the most control over their own lives.
Given private property and free markets, people will negotiate and
trade to improve their circumstances. A difficulty with applying this
principle to abortion is that neither a zygote, a fetus, nor a baby
are particularly at will to enter into these negotiations. There are
enough people who have an interest in protecting a baby's rights that
they can act as a reasonable proxy for the baby's interests.
The libertarian problem here is that the baby has, without any
intention on its own part, found itself at risk of loss of life
without cooperation from the owner of the womb it needs for its
nurture. The baby has done nothing wrong. The mother may or may not
have done anything "wrong". The mother may have been reckless and
taken undue risks of accidental impregnation. The mother may have
taken reasonable precautions. Or the mother may have been raped.
What is clear is that the mother does not wish to cooperate, and
history has proven that cooperation cannot be easily coerced.
Pregnancy is similar to other legal quandries. Let's say that a
person needs to use the resources of another to save their life, and
cannot negotiate the use of those resources. A reasonable law will
let them use those resources, as long as they "make the owner whole".
That is, they must restore the owner's property to its original
condition, and compensate them for the use of their property.
I think, then, that a libertarian solution to abortion is to allow
a mother to rent her uterus to the baby. On a practical basis, that
is what many parents do. Parents expect that their children will take
care of them in their old age, just as they took care of the children
when they were helpless and feeble. The trouble comes when a mother
doesn't want the baby. Of course, there are these days any number of
parents who are unable to have their own child and are willing to
expect resources to adopt a baby.
So, you have a willing buyer, and a willing seller. Why not sell
babies? There are obvious moral implications, in that it's akin to
slavery. Purchasing a baby is nothing like slavery, though. The
slave purchaser expects to get a return on their money without much
further investment. Purchasing a baby is more like buying a car that
needs repairing. You know that you'll have to spend more before
you'll get any value.
Or, rather than buy and sell babies, perhaps anti-abortion groups
could act as baby brokers. They could take a payment from someone who
wanted a baby, be responsible for the actions of that person, and use
the payment to compensate someone who didn't want their baby and
wanted to give it up.
This would work just fine if there were no unwilling sellers. That
is, if every woman had a price for which she would allow her womb to
be used, then it just becomes a matter of finding enough money to
clear the market. Doubtless, some women would be unwilling to allow
their womb to be used for someone else's nurturing. In this case, the
whole problem comes down to eminent domain. Would it be possible to
"take" a woman's womb for use by a baby (that is, for public
purposes). Clearly, if there were enough willing sellers of "womb
services", it would be possible to establish a fair market value, and
compensate women for the use of their womb.
Basically, then, the failure of current and past abortion laws to
make enough people happy comes down to the confiscation of private
property for public purposes without due compensation. I believe that
if abortion was illegal beyond a certain date in the pregnancy, AND a
woman was fairly compensated, then you would see more people
cooperating with such a law.
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Some Greens don't understand economics
Some Greens don't understand economics. Consider this quote from
Sen
and the Art of Market-Cycle Maintenance by Molly Scott Cato:
Traditional
economists see the economic system as being like the peach in the
Roald Dahl story James and the Giant Peach: it will simply expand for
ever, while we sit on its ever-fattening skin, enjoying the sunshine,
and munching to our hearts' content. Greens, on the other hand, are
opposed to growth because they recognise that planet Earth is a closed
system. Growth must face the limits imposed by that system, whether
they become apparent via resource depletion or the overloading of the
natural environment with waste products. And, since the resources of
planet Earth are finite, if there are five peaches and I eat four,
that only leaves one for you. Or if we eat five between us and then
our friend Bettina comes along, she will have to do
without.
Wiser perspectives are available from Lester
Thurow and Philip
Sutton.
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Charity must be voluntary
Charity must be voluntary. Very simply, you get what you
subsidize. If you give money to people who have certain
characteristics, you will find more people trying to achive those
characteristics. Rather than government aid working to eliminate
poverty, it functions to create more poor people.
If, on the other hand, charity is voluntary, and human judgement is
applied to the decision to help someone, then that human can evaluate
each need on its own merits. Sometimes some people are helped most by
the kick in the butt that poverty provides. Other people are not, and
no blanket rule (as governments have to apply) will get it as right.
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Heresy
Ever notice that icons of Jesus never look like a jew-boy? Jesus
was a hebe, no question about it, only you'd never get that idea from
the pictures of Him. He oughtta have a fucking big jewish
nose. Instead he's always drawn with a dainty little european
nose. In fact, Jesus should look more like your average Palestinian
terrorist than anybody else. If you're a Christian, and you claim to
not like Jews, you're a walking contradiction in terms. The founder
of your religion, the object of your love, was a Jew. Deal with
it!
Actually, the various anti-economic things that are ascribed to
Jesus really bother me. On the one hand, as a person he can certainly
be forgiven for not knowing things that have only been discovered in
the last couple of hundred years. On the other hand, as the Son of
God, he's held up by some people as the perfect model of human
behavior, without flaw, without error, every word divinely inspired by
God. Okay, so did Jesus never stub His toe? Did He say "shit" and
hop around on one foot? He was human, fully human. Did He get sick?
Did He up-chuck? Did He have diarrhea? All human babies spit up, all
babies have diaper accidents. Okay, so you have to assume that Jesus
shit on Mother Mary. It's likely anyway. He surely puked on her; no
mother escapes baby vomit, not even Baby Jesus vomit. So if Jesus was
human, did He make human errors? If He didn't, then how can He be
said to be human? And if He made mistakes, were His anti-economic
sayings mistakes? What else might be mistakes?
Hehe. And some people adopt Christianity because it provides a
model for human behavior which is certain. I got news for
'em! Ain't none! Lotta questions, no answers!
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redacted
I needed to rewrite this posting, and couldn't think of any way to
do it and still have the name of the URL still make sense. Basically,
the new posting needs to point out that neither Republicans nor
Democrats are the root of all evil. If I were going to write it,
it would probably go like this:
If a black gay person votes
Republican, or a wealthy white person votes Democrat they probably are
doing so for a good reason. If the Republicans appear corrupt and
venal, it's probably because they're currently in power. I don't
recall thinking too much of Bill Clinton a few years ago. The main
problem with politicians is that they're the kind of people who want
to have control over other people. Such people are never nice people.
So if you find yourself holding your nose when you vote, it's probably
because you're voting for a politician.
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